Cloud Computing Predictions for 2010

Top predictions for the cloud computing industry in 2010 by Elastra Corp. Stuart Charlton, CTO at Elastra says “In 2009 we saw a lot of large enterprises get their feet wet with cloud computing. They were testing the waters and trying to figure out a model that fits for the way they operate. In 2010 we will see a lot more projects kick off and the growth of private clouds in major companies. Thankfully the hype cycle of cloud computing has faded. Now the real adoption of this exciting technology in the enterprise can finally begin.”

1. Microsoft Enters PaaS Market
   With the introduction of Azure and SQL Server Modeling (formerly known as Oslo) Microsoft will enter the platform-as-a-service market as a strong competitor to Google’s App Engine. As Microsoft expands their product offering it will intensify the war for the hearts and minds of the PaaS users.
2. Cisco Emerges
   With almost all major companies using their technology to power their networks, Cisco is in a unique position to enter the cloud market. In 2010 we should expect them to aggressively and successfully push into the marketplace with their UCS platform and associated partnerships and help companies build private compute clouds effectively, displacing entrenched players like IBM and HP.
3. IaaS Market Consolidation
   Large companies entering the IaaS market will cause the inevitable price war to capture market share. Unfortunately many of the small IaaS vendors will be unable to price as aggressively as their larger competitors. As a result we should expect several smaller IaaS vendors to either close shop or be acquired as their customers flee to lower cost competitors.
4. App Engine Encroaches on AWS Developers
   Since the market for AWS developers and App Engine users overlap in 2010 you will see a lot more small, Java-focused developers start to adopt and use Google’s App Engine for developing web-based applications.
5. Rise of the Vertical Cloud
   As the U.S. Federal government starts to build its own compute cloud we will see this trend continue in other verticals where it makes sense. In 2010 you should expect to see the DoD and the intelligence community (NSA, CIA, DIA) build their own compute clouds serving their specific customers.
6. Major Security Violation
   In 2010 we will see the first major security and privacy violation in the cloud. It won’t be a failure of technology or an elaborate hacking technique. It will be a simple case of human error that makes the private information of thousands of customers available for all to see. All powered by cloud computing.
7. Configuration in the Cloud
   As companies start building private clouds they will run into the classic problems of managing complex production systems. So change and configuration management of infrastructure clouds will become the primary technical challenge to be met in 2010.
8. Governance
   As larger enterprises start adopting public clouds data governance (latency, integration, and privacy) becomes the major roadblock to multi or hybrid cloud deployments.
9. Established Data Center Vendor Penetration
   Data center automation players such as HP, BMC, CA, and Tivoli, largely silent to date, make their move to drive their products into managing infrastructure clouds.
10. Standards
    Cloud standards will remain elusive. Progress will be made at the various standards bodies, but the only standard that will gain traction will be OVF (The DMTF’s Open Virtualization Format), and mostly for private cloud deployments. Various products will continue to grow as they integrate or broker to different Cloud APIs.